The 2024 Southport stabbings refers to a heinous attack carried out Axel Rudakubana. He committed three murders and ten attempted murders. This article is constructed largely from information in the public domain and is being updated at intervals, as new information comes to light. Note again our ‘Fat Disclaimer‘.
Rudakubana was 17 years old at the time he committed the offences.
Rudakubana had been flagged multiple times by different organisations, including the Prevent programme, social care authorities, and mental health services. Despite these warnings, gaps in communication and assessment allowed him to slip through the cracks. This failure led to a devastating outcome that could have potentially been prevented with better coordination and a more integrated approach to threat assessment. The tragic events of that day highlighted the need for a more finely woven protective net between agencies to prevent similar incidents in the future.
The Prevent programme, which had assessed Rudakubana three times between 2019 and 2021, failed to identify any terrorist ideology, resulting in his exclusion from the scheme. Social care and mental health services were also involved due to his violent behaviour and previous diagnosis of Autistic Spectrum Disorder in 2021, yet they were unable to effectively mitigate the risk he posed. The police and justice system encountered Rudakubana on multiple occasions but did not foresee the impending threat.
The aftermath of the attack saw nationwide riots fuelled by misinformation, a public inquiry led by David Anderson, and a call from Prime Minister Keir Starmer to overhaul terrorism laws and the Prevent programme.
Axel Rudakubana was convicted of multiple charges related to the 2024 Southport stabbings. He pleaded guilty to:
- Three counts of murder
- Ten counts of attempted murder
- Possession of a bladed article
- Production of a biological toxin (ricin)
- Possession of information likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing to commit an act of terrorism
He was sentenced to life imprisonment with a minimum term of 52 years.
Historical Timeline
- Age 11: Appears in BBC Children In Need campaign video.
- Age 13: “Something changed” in Rudakubana, according to his barrister. Begins exhibiting anger issues and a propensity for violence. Develops obsessions with figures like Hitler and Genghis Khan.
- October 2019: Takes a knife to Range High School, claiming racist bullying. Asks Childline about killing someone. Expelled from Range High School after admitting to bringing a knife to school on multiple occasions.
- December 2019: First referral to Prevent after comments about a mass shooting.
- Two months after expulsion (approx. December 2019): Attacks another child with a hockey stick at Range High School.
- Following attacks: Diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Enrolled in The Acorns School and Presfield High School & Specialist College for children with special needs. Attendance limited. Experiences anxiety preventing him from leaving home. Convicted of assault and carrying a knife. Referred to youth justice service.
- February 2021: Second referral to Prevent after posting images of Colonel Gaddafi on Instagram.
- April 2021: Third referral to Prevent for reading about the 2017 London Bridge attack. Downloads al-Qaeda training manual.
- November 2021: Parents call police after Rudakubana becomes disruptive with a stranger at the door.
- Weeks after first call (approx. December 2021): Parents call police after Rudakubana kicks his father and damages his car.
- March 2022: Mother reports Rudakubana missing. Police find him on a bus carrying a knife; he expresses desire to stab someone and get his TikTok account deleted.
- May 2022: Father calls police about Rudakubana’s reaction to being denied computer access.
- Following police calls: Children’s Social Care conducts an initial assessment, recommending “early help.” Rudakubana and family offered guidance on his emotional wellbeing and behaviours.
- February 2023: Stops engaging with local mental health services.
- Prior to July 2024: Social care professionals assess Rudakubana’s needs for transition to adulthood. His participation remains a challenge. Downloads al-Qaeda training manual again.
- 7 July 2024: Leanne Lucas posted an advert for the Taylor Swift yoga and dance workshop on Instagram.
- Week before attack (approx. July 20, 2024): Attempts to return to Range High School wearing a hood and surgical mask, but his father stops the taxi.
- July 2024: Purchases a knife on Amazon using encryption software. Searches for material on the stabbing of a bishop in Sydney. Deletes his IP address from his tablet.
Index incident
2024
July 7: An Instagram ad for a Taylor Swift-themed dance workshop for children is posted and sells out within 11 days.
July 13: Rudakubana buys a 20cm kitchen knife on Amazon using encryption software to hide his identity.
July 29, 10:00 BST: The dance class begins with 26 children in attendance.
July 29, 11:10 BST: Rudakubana leaves his home wearing a hood and surgical mask, carrying the knife. He deletes his tablet’s IP address and researches the Sydney bishop stabbing.
July 29, 11:30 BST: A taxi picks up Rudakubana. He remains silent during the ride.
July 29, The attack occurred at the Hart Space in Southport. Axel Rudakubana arrived at the venue around 11:45 AM and began stabbing children and adults.
July 29, Post-Taxi Ride: Rudakubana exits the taxi without paying. A confrontation ensues with the driver and garage owner.
July 29, Post-Confrontation: Rudakubana enters the dance studio and stabs children, killing Bebe King (6), Elsie Dot Stancombe (7), and Alice da Silva Aguiar (9). He attempts to stab others fleeing the scene.
July 29, 11:59 BST: Rudakubana is arrested and remains silent during questioning.
July 30, Rudakubana’s home in Old School Close, Banks is searched by police, and an unknown substance is found in his bedroom.
July 30, Riots broke out in Southport and spread nationwide due to misinformation about the attacker’s identity.
2025
January 20, 2025: Rudakubana pleaded guilty to all charges, including three counts of murder and ten counts of attempted murder.
January 23, 2025: Rudakubana was sentenced to life imprisonment with a minimum term of 52 years.
Early Warning Signs
- Year nine (age 13): “Something changed,” exhibited anger issues and propensity for violence.
- Obsession with Hitler and Genghis Khan.
- October 2019: Took a knife to school (claimed racist bullying). Asked Childline about killing someone. Admitted bringing knife to school ~10 times. Said he carried a knife “to use it.“
- Two months after expulsion: Attacked another child with a hockey stick.
- October 2021: Following expulsion from Range High: Largely dropped out of formal education. Diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Attended special needs schools, but attendance was limited, and staff sometimes requested police presence for home visits. Experienced anxiety that prevented him leaving home.
- Criminal convictions for assault and carrying a knife. Referred to youth justice service.
- Multiple police interactions, including calls from his parents regarding disruptive behaviour, violence, and running away. Admitted to police he carried a knife and wanted to stab someone (but wasn’t charged).
- Expressed interest in school shootings, the London Bridge attack, the IRA, MI5 and the Middle East. Referred to Prevent three times. Researched acts of violence on school computer.
Agencies involved
This tragic event has highlighted the need for better coordination and assessment of potential threats.
- Merseyside Police: They were the first to respond to the emergency calls and quickly declared a major incident. They arrested Rudakubana at the scene and conducted an investigation into the attack. They faced criticism for not identifying any terrorist motives despite Rudakubana’s concerning behaviour.
- North West Ambulance Service (NWAS): They dispatched ambulances and air ambulances to the scene to treat and transport the injured. Their swift response helped save lives.
- Prevent Programme: Rudakubana had been referred to Prevent three times between 2019 and 2021, but he was not accepted into the scheme as no terrorist ideology was identified. This led to a public inquiry into the programme’s effectiveness and calls for changes to include non-ideological threats.
- School and Education Authorities: They identified concerning behaviours but couldn’t intervene effectively to change his trajectory. October 2019: Rudakubana was excluded from Range High School after bringing a knife to school. December 2019: He assaulted another child with a hockey stick and received a youth justice referral order.
- Social Care Authorities: Social care made multiple vulnerable child referrals to the local multi-agency safeguarding hub following calls from Rudakubana’s home.
- Mental Health Services: Having been looked after since 2019 Rudakubana stopped engaging with mental health services provided by Alder Hey Children’s NHS Foundation Trust in Liverpool, in February 2023.
- Prevent: December 2019 – Rudakubana was first referred to the Prevent programme after making comments about a mass shooting. February 2021: A fellow pupil raised concerns about Rudakubana posting images of Colonel Gaddafi on Instagram, leading to a second referral. April 2021: A teacher noticed Rudakubana reading about the 2017 London Bridge attack, resulting in a third referral. [Source] Despite these three referrals, Rudakubana was not placed under enhanced monitoring as his case did not fit the typical profile of a potential extremist. This oversight has led to significant criticism of the Prevent programme and calls for urgent reforms1.
- Public Inquiry and Government Response: After the attack, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a public inquiry into the incident and promised to overhaul terrorism laws to include non-ideological acts of violence. David Anderson was appointed to lead a review of the Prevent programme.
Failure of risk containment

The scenario where several agencies fail to catch risk, is not uncommon in the UK. The Swiss Cheese Model shows what happens to when layers of risk control devlop holes and those holes align. Obviously agencies will discover those holes in hindsight. That usually happens after or during a public or some other inquiry.
The closing of the risk lacunae (holes) is not an activity that any protective agency should actively occupy time with i.e. It is not about finding holes and closing them. This model is purely conceptual.
The first challenge among many is to prevent ‘holes’ developing or making them very small. The next is to not have even small holes aligning where security and lives may be involved. Inter-agency interactions means that there will always be some holes aligning. It will be desirable if at least one agency has no hole to allow risk through.
The potential holes conceptually include issues such as (not a full list):
- Adequate resources and staffing.
- Communication.
- Robust (unrushed) risk assessments.
- High levels of connectivity between agencies.
- Responsivity.

The net model is pretty simple. Everyone should be aware that not all risks can be caught before they materialise. By way of simple analogy, not everyone will tie themselves to a rope anchored at the top of a stairs and hoist down with extreme care. But some vulnerable people with balance problems, may require special equipment (a finer ‘net’) when navigating stairs.
Organisations and individuals can decide what ‘nets’ they apply in various areas of risk management and control. But it is acknowledged that no net will be perfect.
However, applying the wrong net to an obvious risk (which is only a probability) is not a good idea.
Management of tail risk is particularly problematic as previously explored twice on this site.
There are several models of risk control/management beyond the scope of this article.
Preliminary conclusions
Risk protective agencies are not learning lessons. Learning means a demonstration of not repeating the same mistakes over and over again. The same themes emerge in the UK across health services, social services, law enforcement agencies, education, and counter terrorism services.
The government and other bodies talk a lot about ‘learning lessons’. In reality there are no new lessons.