Articles for tag: assessment, Bayes, Bayesian, documentation, forensic, forensic psychiatry, management, risk, thinking

Bayesian reasoning in forensic psychiatry

Bayesian reasoning is not, in this context, a demand for spurious mathematics. It is a disciplined way of thinking under uncertainty. Its value in forensic psychiatry lies in requiring the assessor to distinguish between the baseline picture, the new evidence, the weight of that evidence, and the updated judgement that follows. In ordinary professional language, the question is simple: what was already known, what has now emerged, how much should it change the view, and why? [See also: Applying Bayesian ...